Oil industry's dangerous mixed messages on peak oil

摘要

Misperceptions about global hydrocarbon resources could have enormous repercussions. The oil business doesn't know whether it believes in peak oil or not. Total's CEO, Christophe de Margerie, says it will be difficult to reach 100 MMb/d of worldwide output. Jeroen van der Veer, CEO of Shell, believes that after 2015, supplies of "easy" oil and gas will no longer meet demand. On the other hand, ExxonMobil argues that a "peak in petroleum liquids production. . .is unlikely in the next 25 years," and the consultancy CERA states "Peak Oil theory is garbage." Most industry figures say there is no shortage of resources. They point instead to geopolitical issues and increasing technical challenges. But such subtleties are easily lost when these remarks are reported to the general public. As a result, advocates of peak oil create the impression that even the mainstream oil business is swinging around to their point of view. This uncertainty is dangerous. Of course, it is for each individual company and country to make up its mind on the balance of supply and demand and to plan its investments accordingly. But the idea of/an imminent peak is very harmful to the oil business in several ways.