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Efficient Likelihood Inference in nonstationary Univariate Models

机译:非平稳单变量模型中的有效似然推断

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Recent literature shows that embedding fractionally integrated time series models with spectral poles at the long-run and/or seasonal frequencies in autoregressive frameworks leads to estimators and test statistics with nonstandard limiting distributions.However,we demonstrate that when embedding such models in a general I(d) framework the resulting estimators and tests regain desirable properties from standard statistical analysis.We show the existence of a local time domain maximum likelihood estimator and its asymptotic normality-and under Gauss-ianity asymptotic efficiency.The Wald,likelihood ratio,and Lagrange multiplier tests are asymptotically equivalent and chi-squared distributed under local alternatives.With independent and identically distributed Gaussian errors and a scalar parameter,we show that the tests in addition achieve the asymptotic Gaussian power envelope of all invariant unbiased testsi.e.,they are asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant unbiased against local alternatives.In a Monte Carlo study we document the finite sample superiority of the likelihood ratio test.
机译:最近的文献表明,在自回归框架中嵌入具有长期和/或季节性频率频谱极点的分数积分时间序列模型会导致估计量和检验统计量具有非标准的限制分布。但是,我们证明了将此类模型嵌入一般I (d)框架所得的估计量并通过标准统计分析重新获得期望的属性。我们显示了局部时域最大似然估计量的存在及其渐近正态性以及在高斯性渐近效率下的Wald,似然比和Lagrange乘数检验是渐近等价的,并且在局部选择下卡方分布。具有独立且相同分布的高斯误差和标量参数,我们证明这些检验还实现了所有不变无偏检验的渐近高斯幂包络,即渐近一致最有力的不变式在蒙特卡洛研究中,我们记录了似然比检验的有限样本优势。

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