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ON THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF MACROECONOMIC DISASTERS

机译:宏观经济灾害的规模分布

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The coefficient of relative risk aversion is a key parameter for analyses of behavior toward risk, but good estimates of this parameter do not exist. a promising place for reliable estimation is rare macroeconomic disasters, which have a major influence on the equity premium. The premium depends on the probability and size distribution of disasters, gauged by proportionate declines in per capita consumption or gross domestic product. Long-term national-accounts data for 36 countries provide a large sample of disasters of magnitude 10% or more. a power-law density provides a good fit to the size distribution, and the upper-tail exponent, alpha, is estimated to be around 4. a higher alpha signifies a thinner tail and, therefore, a lower equity premium, whereas a higher coefficient of relative risk aversion, y, implies a higher premium. The premium is finite if alpha > gamma. The observed premium of 5% generates an estimated gamma close to 3, with a 95% confidence interval of 2 to 4. The results are robust to uncertainty about the values of the disaster probability and the equity premium, and can accommodate seemingly paradoxical situations in which the equity premium may appear to be infinite.
机译:相对风险规避系数是分析风险行为的关键参数,但是尚不存在对该参数的良好估计。可靠的估计的一个有希望的地方是罕见的宏观经济灾难,这对股票溢价产生重大影响。溢价取决于灾难的可能性和规模分布,以人均消费量或国内生产总值的相应下降来衡量。 36个国家/地区的长期国民账户数据提供了10%或更多的严重灾害样本。幂律密度非常适合大小分布,上尾指数α估计为4左右。较高的α表示尾部较细,因此股本溢价较低,而系数较高相对风险规避y表示较高的溢价。如果alpha> gamma,则溢价是有限的。观察到的5%的溢价产生的估计伽玛值接近3,95%的置信区间为2到4。结果对于不确定性概率值和股权溢价具有不确定性,并且可以适应看似矛盾的情况。股本溢价可能看起来是无限的。

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