Backpropagation Neural Network for Interval Prediction of Three-Phase Ampacity Level in Power Systems

摘要

The modern way of living depends on a very high degree on electricity utilization. People take for granted that their energy needs will be satisfied 24/7 which mandates the maintaining of the power grid in stable state. To that end, the development of precise methods for monitoring and predicting events that might disturb its uninterrupted operation is immense. Moreover, the evolvement of power grids into smart grids where the end users continuously participate in the power market by forming energy prices and/or by adjusting their energy needs according to their own agenda, adds high volatility to load demand. In that sense, with regard to predictive methods, a plain single point prediction application may not be enough. The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a method in order to further enhance this type of applications by providing Predictive Intervals (PIs) regarding ampacity overloading in smart power systems through the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs).