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Assessing the potential impact of future precipitation trends on urban drainage systems under multiple climate change scenarios

机译:在多种气候变化情景下评估未来降水趋势对城市排水系统的潜在影响

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Investigations of climate change impacts on urban drainage system have been discerned worldwide in the past decades and will attract more attention in the coming future. This paper presents an approach to assessing the possibility of extreme rainfall events under variation greenhouse gas emission scenarios as well as a case study in Hefei City, China. Future precipitation projections were downscaled in a spatiotemporal way firstly, and summarised into intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. The changes of the IDF were then compared subsequently between the present condition and the future scenarios. The results indicate that the local rainfall regime will generally stay the same or slightly increase for the drizzles, but the extreme events will become more intensive and frequent. Although uncertainty has been found among the different emission scenarios and the various future periods, it is still notable to take climate change into consideration to deal urban drainage system issues.
机译:在过去的几十年中,已经对气候变化对城市排水系统的影响进行了调查,并将在未来的将来引起更多关注。本文提出了一种评估温室气体排放变化情景下极端降雨事件可能性的方法,并以中国合肥市为例。首先以时空方式将未来的降水预测缩减,并归纳为强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)曲线。然后,将IDF的变化随后在当前状况和未来情景之间进行比较。结果表明,毛毛雨当地的降雨情况通常保持不变或略有增加,但极端事件将变得更加密集和频繁。尽管在不同的排放情景和未来的不同时期中都存在不确定性,但值得注意的是,要考虑气候变化来解决城市排水系统问题。

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