Hominid evolution: Genetics versus memetics

摘要

The last few million years on planet Earth have witnessed two remarkable phases of hominid development, starting with a phase of biological evolution characterized by rather rapid increase of the size of the brain. This has been followed by a phase of even more rapid technological evolution and concomitant expansion of the size of the population that began when our own particular 'sapiens' species emerged, just a few hundred thousand years ago. The present investigation exploits the analogy between the neo-Darwinian genetic evolution mechanism governing the first phase, and the memetic evolution mechanism governing the second phase. From the outset of the latter until very recently - about the year 2000 - the growth of the global population N was roughly governed by an equation of the form dN/Ndt=N/T*, in which T* is a coefficient introduced (in 1960) by von Foerster, who evaluated it empirically as about 200 000 million years. It is shown here how the value of this hitherto mysterious timescale governing the memetic phase is explicable in terms of what happened in the preceding genetic phase. The outcome is that the order of magnitude of the Foerster timescale can be accounted for as the product of the relevant (human) generation timescale, about 20 years, with the number of bits of information in the genome, of the order of 10 000 million. Whereas the origin of our 'homo' genus may well have involved an evolutionary hard step, it transpires that the emergence of our particular 'sapiens' species was rather an automatic process.