Environmental links to reduced tropical cyclogenesis over the south-east Caribbean

摘要

Tropical cyclone formation over the Caribbean is not evenly distributed across the basin. Previous work identified the south-western sector as the area that dominates the hurricane activity of the whole basin. The south-eastern sector, in contrast, exhibits a distinct suppression in cyclogenesis. This study seeks to identify the restricting factors that differentiate the cyclogenesis climatology in the south-east Caribbean. It is based on statistical analysis of eight environmental variables using principal component analysis. The first three components are examined in detail. The first component, accounting for 31.7% of the variance within the data, differentiates the Caribbean from the rest of the subtropical Atlantic, primarily in terms of an increased thermodynamic potential for cyclogenesis and enhanced atmospheric humidity in the boundary layer. The second component, accounting for 31.7% of the variance, marks the south-west Caribbean as the only sub-region within the area of analysis where the easterlies curve southwards and the relative vorticity is cyclonic. The third component, accounting for 20.3% of the variance, differentiates the South Caribbean from the rest of the Atlantic, indicating it to be a region of increased spatial variation in the intensity of the easterlies and in absolute vorticity. The variance of cyclogenesis within the Caribbean is greatest along the second and third components. Thus, the genesis pattern in the basin is likely associated with the low-level wind-field and absolute vorticity. The divergence of the flow, when combined with the vorticity of the wind-field over the Caribbean, renders the background conditions of the eastern sector less prone to developing disturbances than is the case in the western Caribbean. (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society