On the role of statistics in climate research

摘要

We review the role of statistical analysis in the climate sciences. Special emphasis is given to attempts to construct dynamical knowledge from limited observational evidence, and to the ongoing task of drawing detailed and reliable information on the state, and change, of climate that is needed, for example, for short-term and seasonal forecasting. We conclude with recommendations of how to improve the practice of statistical analysis in the climate sciences by drawing more efficiently on relevant developments in statistical mathematics.