1963: The break point of the Northern Hemisphere temperature trend during the twentieth century

摘要

Besides gradually, climate can also change abruptly. The global surface temperature series is a major indicator of such changes. Using rigorous statistical tools, we show that during the twentieth century the time series of annual Northern Hemisphere surface temperature is well described by a trend-stationary process, but the trend line breaks in 1963. After six transitory years, in 1970, the temperature course locks up into a new regime with a triple linear warming rate. For the emergence and abruptness of the break we reveal the key roles of the Mount Agung eruption and the interannual to interdecadal changes of the major modes and patterns of climate variability. We offer an abrupt climate shift scenario based on the adaptivity of climatic regimes against instant external forcings.