Improved Flood Disaster Assessment Method Based on Cloud Model and Fuzzy Certainty Degree

摘要

Flood disasters always occur occasionally and unpredictably. In order to reflect the fuzzy and occasional characters of flood, furthermore evaluate flood disaster accurately and timely, an evaluation approach based on improved cloud model is proposed in this study. Cloud model is a transformation tool between quantity and quality. It can not only qualitatively analyze the fuzzy character of assessment indexes but also can reflect the randomness of flood disaster. Moreover it can quantitatively evaluate the disaster. The certainty degree method is also used to analysis and solves the problem of failure caused by the maximum membership principle in cloud model. The revised method improves the experiment result. Compared with the assessment result by the grey clustering method and the fuzzy method, the amended cloud model method is confirmed to be a reliable method for rapid assessment.