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An efficient simulation budget allocation method incorporating regression for partitioned domains

机译:一种结合了分区域回归的有效仿真预算分配方法

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Simulation can be a very powerful tool to help decision making in many applications but exploring multiple courses of actions can be time consuming. Numerous ranking and selection (R&S) procedures have been developed to enhance the simulation efficiency of finding the best design. To further improve efficiency, one approach is to incorporate information from across the domain into a regression equation. However, the use of a regression metamodel also inherits some typical assumptions from most regression approaches, such as the assumption of an underlying quadratic function and the simulation noise is homogeneous across the domain of interest. To extend the limitation while retaining the efficiency benefit, we propose to partition the domain of interest such that in each partition the mean of the underlying function is approximately quadratic. Our new method provides approximately optimal rules for between and within partitions that determine the number of samples allocated to each design location. The goal is to maximize the probability of correctly selecting the best design. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our new approach can dramatically enhance efficiency over existing efficient R&S methods.
机译:模拟可以是非常强大的工具,可以帮助许多应用程序中的决策,但是探索多个动作过程可能会很耗时。已经开发了许多排名和选择(R&S)程序,以提高找到最佳设计的仿真效率。为了进一步提高效率,一种方法是将来自整个域的信息合并到回归方程中。但是,回归元模型的使用也继承了大多数回归方法的一些典型假设,例如基本二次函数的假设,并且仿真噪声在整个目标域内是均匀的。为了在保留效率效益的同时扩展限制,我们建议对目标域进行分区,以使在每个分区中,基础函数的均值近似二次。我们的新方法为分区之间和分区内提供了近似最佳的规则,这些规则确定分配给每个设计位置的样本数量。目的是使正确选择最佳设计的可能性最大化。数值实验表明,与现有的有效R&S方法相比,我们的新方法可以大大提高效率。

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