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Downscaling standardized precipitation index via model output statistics

机译:通过模型输出统计来缩减标准降水指数

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This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on meteorological drought events in Turkey by using a new statistical downscaling technique based on polytomous logistic regression, denoted as the model output statistics (MOS) technique. It is designed to downscale the drought classes of the 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The main goal of a downscaling procedure is to determine the influences of large-scale climatic variability and the projected changes on the local scale-regional variables. The large-scale predictors used in this study were obtained from the output of the Second Generation Canadian Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM2) simulations, run from 1940 to 2100 for three socioeconomic scenarios, namely control, with the constraint of the 20th century atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, and the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Observations from 96 meteorological stations were used to estimate 12-month SPI values for the period 1940-2010, leaving the last 10 years for validation against the results simulated by the CGCM2. The MOS results derived from the control climate simulation agree with the observed patterns for present climate. The MOS results derived from future climate scenarios lead to conclude that there is a decreased probability of very wet and extremely wet conditions. In addition, the probabilities of near-normal conditions will decrease in the Black Sea coast and will increase towards the Marmara Transition and continental eastern Anatolia regions.
机译:这项研究通过使用一种新的基于多因素Logistic回归的统计缩减尺度技术(称为模型输出统计(MOS)技术),研究了未来气候变化对土耳其气象干旱事件的可能影响。它旨在降低12个月标准降水指数(SPI)的干旱等级。降尺度程序的主要目标是确定大规模气候变化和预计变化对局部尺度-区域变量的影响。本研究中使用的大型预测变量是从第二代加拿大耦合的一般环流模型(CGCM2)的模拟输出得出的,该模拟从1940年到2100年针对三种社会经济情景,即控制,受20世纪大气浓度的约束温室气体,SRES A2和B2情景。来自96个气象站的观测值被用于估算1940-2010年期间的12个月SPI值,剩下的10年用于根据CGCM2模拟的结果进行验证。从控制气候模拟得出的MOS结果与当前气候的观测模式一致。从未来气候情景得出的MOS结果得出结论,极潮湿和极潮湿条件的可能性降低。此外,在黑海沿岸,接近正常状况的可能性将降低,并且在马尔马拉河过渡带和安纳托利亚东部大陆地区将增加。

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