BMI View:Falling domestic natural gas production and significant planned LNG import capacity will see Thailand's natural gas imports nearly double over our 10-year forecast period (2016-2025). The share of LNG imports as a percentage of total imports will increase from 39.0% currently to 47.0% by the end of the decade, alongside a more than tripling of existing LNG import capacity. Thailand's natural gas imports are set to increase sequentially over the coming 10 years on account of falling production and LNG import capacity expansion. Natural gas production in Thailand is poisedto fall by 8.8% between 2016 and 2025, as a combination of low oil prices, slowing investment in new assets and maturing fields weigh on overall output. This will be in conflict with steady growth in Thailand's consumption of natural gas, which we forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.0-2.0% per annum over the next 10 years. The growth in consumption will be largely due to resilient demand from the power sector. Despite competition from alternative power sources, notably renewable energy, our Power team expects only a modest decline in gas-fired power generation as a percent of total, from 69.0% to 68.6% by 2025.
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