A foreign country

摘要

Goldman Sachs predicted last year that crude could reach105/bl.Another analyst has forecast 10/bl within threeyears in the event of an economic slowdown.The widespread of projections reflects the huge trading range in themarket volatility in the last four years.It has left analystsscratching their heads for a means to model price trends.Predictions of oil prices were relatively stable in the1990s and early 2000s.Analysts assumed that because for-ward oil prices were stuck in a band between 16/bl and21/bl,crude would remain at those levels.And economicmodels backed this up,because that was the cost of devel-oping new non-Opec production.The marginal cost of pro-duction would determine the price of crude.