Regional Model Assessments of Humidification of Drylands of Russia in 2011-2030

摘要

Possible climate and moisture changes on drylands in Russia are studied using the results of numerical simulations at Regional Climate Model (RCM) of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) in 2011—2030 compared to the last two decades of the20th century. It has been revealed that an average temperature increase is projected at an annual average of 0.6°C and summer average of 0.4°C (from May to August); the precipitation increase over most of the territory will not exceed 10%. It is expected that aridity will take place on almost all dry lands in European Russia in 2011—2030. The results of modeling are consistent with the trend of changes in the moisturization of the arid lands in Russia using data from weather stations. Thus, the current trend could be sustained. According to the regional model, continuous humidification in Asian drylands is expected.