Beware forecasters

摘要

Supply forecasts need to be revised upwards. This affects how Opec plans for the rest of this year and into 2015. Upward revisions to supply forecasts are a radical departure from years of oil market analysis. Downward revisions to supply, especially non-Opec supply, have become an established assumption in the analysis of the global oil market balance by banks and the IEA. Banks have turned non-Opec underperformance into one of their bullish standby arguments.