Saudi Arabia expects crude prices to return to $100/bl and fuctuate around that level after a possible increase in demand in the fourth quarter. Opec’s price basket has fallen to $95.19/bl from $100.10/bl on 1 September, as a crude surplus has built in the Atlantic basin. Saudi Aramco has sharply cut offcial formula prices for October cargoes, particularly for Asia‐Pacifc sales, to better compete as this oil goes east (AGM, 12 September, p1). But Riyadh thinks “there are a lot of uncertainties about demand and supply” and this will cause price fuctuations to continue, a Mideast Gulf Opec delegate says. “It is clear that the market is more or less balanced, and maybe demand will pick up in the fourth quarter,” he says.
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