Oil market analysts have cut benchmark North Sea crude price forecasts again, in the expectation that supplies will exceed demand well into next year. North Sea Dated or Ice Brent crude futures will average roughly $52/bl in the fourth quarter and just under $58/bl next year, an Argus survey of 14 analysts shows (see table, below). The results are $9-10/bl lower than in the previous survey just six weeks ago (AGM, 21 August, p2). Large forecast revisions refect expectations that supply will continue to exceed demand at least until the middle of next year and potentially for longer (AGM, 18 September, p1). “The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we now forecast this surplus to persist in 2016,” US bank Goldman Sachs says.
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