Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations

摘要

Real-time prediction of the arrival times at Earth of shocks is very important for spaceweather research. Recently, various models for shock propagation are used to forecastthe shock arriving times (SATs) with information of initial coronal shock and flarefrom near real-time radio and X-ray data. In this paper, we add the use of solarenergetic particles (SEP) observation to improve the shock arrival time (SAT) prediction.High-energy SEPs originating from flares move to the Earth much faster than theshocks related to the same flares. We develop an SAT prediction model by combininga well-known shock propagation model, STOA, and the analysis of SEPs detected atEarth. We demonstrate that the SAT predictions are improved by the new model with thehelp of 38-53 keV electron SEP observations. In particular, the correct prediction to falsealarm ratio is improved significantly.