International Long Product Market Analysis

摘要

MBR’s argument that price downside has emanated from Chinese price deflation continues to play out, with rapid declines in prices in first Turkish then US prices. Amid this view, it is interesting to notice that while Chinese rebar export prices have declined only $5/t over the past six weeks since the final week of Q3, Turkish export and US local prices have declined $30-40/t. MBR believes that this fits our view that Chinese prices lead external price declines, given that there is a lag between Chinese rebar export price declines, as EAF based suppliers in Turkey and the USA attempt to negotiate their scrap costs down before engaging in major downshifts in their rebar prices.