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A common misapplication of statistical inference: Nuisance control with null-hypothesis significance tests

机译:统计推断的一个常见误用:带有零假设重要性检验的扰动控制

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摘要

Experimental research on behavior and cognition frequently rests on stimulus or subject selection where not all characteristics can be fully controlled, even when attempting strict matching. For example, when contrasting patients to controls, variables such as intelligence or socioeconomic status are often correlated with patient status. Similarly, when presenting word stimuli, variables such as word frequency are often correlated with primary variables of interest. One procedure very commonly employed to control for such nuisance effects is conducting inferential tests on confounding stimulus or subject characteristics. For example, if word length is not significantly different for two stimulus sets, they are considered as matched for word length. Such a test has high error rates and is conceptually misguided. It reflects a common misunderstanding of statistical tests: interpreting significance not to refer to inference about a particular population parameter, but about 1. the sample in question, 2. the practical relevance of a sample difference (so that a nonsignificant test is taken to indicate evidence for the absence of relevant differences). We show inferential testing for assessing nuisance effects to be inappropriate both pragmatically and philosophically, present a survey showing its high prevalence, and briefly discuss an alternative in the form of regression including nuisance variables. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译:行为和认知的实验研究通常基于刺激或主题选择,即使尝试进行严格匹配,也无法完全控制所有特征。例如,当将患者与对照进行对比时,诸如智力或社会经济状况之类的变量通常与患者状况相关。类似地,当呈现单词刺激时,诸如单词频率之类的变量通常与所关注的主要变量相关。一种非常常用的控制这种有害影响的方法是对混杂的刺激或受试者特征进行推论测试。例如,如果两个激励集的词长没有明显不同,则认为它们与词长匹配。这样的测试具有很高的错误率,并且在概念上是错误的。它反映了对统计检验的常见误解:解释重要性不是指对特定总体参数的推断,而是关于1.所讨论的样本,2.样本差异的实际相关性(因此采用非显着检验来表明没有相关差异的证据)。我们展示了在实用和哲学上都不适合评估干扰效应的推论性测试,显示了其普遍性的调查,并以包括干扰变量在内的回归形式简要讨论了另一种选择。 (C)2016 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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