Bring on the geeks: The case for improved modelling of capacity requirements

摘要

Pearson et al1 describe a modelling exercise undertaken to estimate the number of beds required for the smooth operation of a multi-specialty paediatric intensive care unit that offers regional and supra-regional services. Several features of this problem are common in healthcare. Every healthcare system around the world has to balance the pressure for high utilisation of an expensive or scarce resource with the pressure for that resource to be available on demand for patients who need it. In the absence of variability, this would be a simple task of matching supply to a steady level of demand. Variability in timing and nature of referrals and in length of stay complicates matters. Striking the balance between utilisation and access is a daily challenge for clinicians. Starting with about the right level of capacity in place can help.