Spatiotemporal dynamic study of lakes and development of mathematical prediction model using geoinformatic techniques

摘要

Lake is the important part of the wetland and also the main source for agricultural irrigation, domestic water supply and industrial requirement. It maintains the aquatic ecosystem and also considered as the major place for biodiversity conservation. The lake area is getting reduced due to increase in siltation and eutrophication processes in the aquatic region. The dynamic changes of the lake create an adverse effect on the environment. The main objective of the present research is to study the spatial dynamic changes of the lake by GIS techniques and to develop the mathematical prediction model to understand the future trend of lake area. Multi-dated satellite image and topographical maps were used to generate the GIS-based thematic databases of the lake boundary for the period from 1954 to 2011. The result shows that the lake area decreased from 33.26 km(2) to 10.8 km(2) during 1954-2011. The decrease of the lake area is due to the natural and anthropogenic activities. In order to study the dynamic change and future trend of lakes, the spatial prediction model was developed for Thirukanchur Lake and was validated by a numerical prediction model with field based studies. The spatial model predicts that the lake area will be further reduced from 0.12 km(2) in 2011 to 0.045 km(2) in 2021. The above model can be applied to other lakes to predict future status of lake by adopting the required parameters.