What views and uses of radiation sources in the 21st century?

摘要

Considering that in 1899 neither biotechnology nor the electronic revolution were foreseen, some humility might be advisable when one looks into the crystal ball for the future role of radiation sources. In the past 50 years, nuclear medicine, nuclear weapons, and nuclear power have had a huge impact in the world. In the next 50 years, nuclear weapons may be phased out, nuclear power revived, and nuclear medicine may continue, especially for diagnostic purposes. Conflicts between great powers and blocks will no longer be about territorial or ideological domination but about trade, finance, information, and the environment and the weapons used will not be bombs but investments, credits, and control of information. Nuclear power-still based on fission-will be relaunched and get more uses, e.g., to propel ships, to produce heat for industry and for space heating, and perhaps to desalinate water. The public will be more at ease with radiation as it is better educated, as nuclear safety continuously improves and new types of nuclear power plants emerge, as waste sites fail to cause any problems, and as no other energy source is found to deliver so much energy at reasonable cost with negligible impact on climate and environment. One kilogram of oil corresponds to 4 kWh of electricity. One kilogram of uranium fuel corresponds to 50,000 kWh, and 1 kg of plutonium 6,000,000 kWh! In nuclear medicine, radiation may give way to other treatments as the understanding of cancer advances. On the other hand, the extreme ease with which sources of radiation can be identified is unmatched and likely to make them useful tools as tracers and markers in medicine-and other fields-for a long time. For certain uses--perhaps food irradiation--radiation sources, such as cobalt, may be replaced by accelerators which may be switched on and off at will. As more sources are used, registration and control of them must be made very effective around the whole world. Very high natural emissions of radon will continue to call for cautionary measures, but many other nonradiating substances will be identified as hazardous to health and call for vigorous intervention.