Attitude Toward Risk of Time Loss in Travel Activity and Air Route Choices

摘要

This article develops a disaggregate discret-choice model for risky travel alternatives, considering travel time as a random variable. The theory of rank-dependent expected utility is used to describe traveler behavior. It disentangles attitude toward risk of travel time loss (perception of time distributions) from attitude toward wealth (perception of time outcomes). The key assumption is that decision makers formulate their own beliefs on probability distributions whenever information is public knowledge. The concept of travel-time reliability premium is then defined. It generalizes the notion of value of travel time savings by proposing a measure of the willingness-to-pay to get another time distribution. An application to air route choice is demonstrated by using a sample of regular business passengers who belong to an airline loyalty program. The empirical approach relies on estimating a Box-Cox Logit model.