A copula entropy approach to correlation measurement at the country level

摘要

The entropy optimization approach has widely been applied in finance for a long time, notably in the areas of market simulation, risk measurement, and financial asset pricing. In this paper, we propose copula entropy models with two and three variables to measure dependence in stock markets, which extend the copula theory and are based on Jaynes's information criterion. Both of them are usually applied under the non-Gaussian distribution assumption. Comparing with the linear correlation coefficient and the mutual information, the strengths and advantages of the copula entropy approach are revealed and confirmed. We also propose an algorithm for the copula entropy approach to obtain the numerical results. With the experimental data analysis at the country level and the economic circle theory in international economy, the validity of the proposed approach is approved; evidently, it captures the non-linear correlation, multi-dimensional correlation, and correlation comparisons without common variables. We would like to make it clear that correlation illustrates dependence, but dependence is not synonymous with correlation. Copulas can capture some special types of dependence, such as tail dependence and asymmetric dependence, which other conventional probability distributions, such as the normal p.d.f. and the Student's t p.d.f., cannot.