Next-generation coastal risk models

摘要

Large-scale coastal flood risk models are evolving to include more physical processes. New research utilizing these models suggests that we face a tremendous challenge in limiting future flood risk.Increased computing power has allowed flood risk models to simultaneously increase in scale and incorporate more physical details. As a result, they are becoming much more reliable predictors of future flood risk. The discomforting finding is that for Europe, anthropogenic climate change and further coastal development are leading to a very rapid increase in coastal flood risk. Writing in Nature Climate Change, Vousdoukas and colleagues1 use a suite of models (Delft 3D hydraulic model, WaveWatch III) for the whole of Europe that includes tides, storm surge and waves in combination with several scenarios of socio-economic development to assess the assets and people exposed to coastal flooding. They report that a 30-fold increase in annual expected damages is projected by 2050, or a 700-fold increase by 2100, if physical protection is not upgraded.