Failed validation of risk prediction model for intervention in renal colic patients after emergency department evaluation

摘要

Background: It has been reported that three criteria (size of calculus >= 6 mm, visual analogue scale pain score at discharge >= 2 cm and location above mid-ureter; the Papa criteria) were sensitive for predicting patients who require intervention (surgery or lithotripsy) within 28 days of index emergency department (ED) visit for ureteric colic. It was suggested that absence of these criteria identified a group for whom early follow-up may not be needed. No validation has been reported. We aimed to validate these criteria.