Developments in individual CECD and selected non-member economies

摘要

After falling sharply this year,GDP is projected to expand by 3.7% in 2021.Rising macroeconomic imbalances and prolonged lockdown measures weigh on domestic demand and limit the pace of the recovery,despite a successful restructuring of public debt with private creditors.Employment has fallen strongly.Monetary financing of the high fiscal deficit is putting further pressure on inflation and the gap between the official and the parallel exchange rate.A gradual lifting of confinement measures will allow some recovery of private consumption,but investment will remain weak until imbalances are addressed.Bold and timely measures have been taken to contain the pandemic and support households and firms,but they have raised the already high fiscal deficit.Reducing macroeconomic imbalances will require prudent fiscal policies and changes to monetary and exchange rate policies.Efficiency gains in public spending and revenue raising,including through a review of special regimes,exemptions and loopholes in the tax system,would improve the fiscal position.Expanding conditional cash transfers is key to reduce poverty and support incomes,including for informal workers.