The Chinese General Manufacturing PMI rebounded from its January low to reach 49.9 in February, ending two months of contraction and pointing towards a positive, if slowly growing, future. Its construction industry, a large user of zinc in steel galvanization, is growing too, albeit also slower than expected. Growth is expected to remain at around 4.5% over the next few years—well below the 10% seen in the early 2010's. A demand crunch is likely to see prices defy the previous gloomy outlook seen across most base metals and begin to rise. Prevailing trade tensions are beginning to dissipate, and outlooks for the short and medium term are starting to look like they may have a more substantial possible upside than previously thought. A combination of reliably increasing demand and record-low stocks is likely to startle prices over the next few months.
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