WORLD COFFEE PRODUCTION TO FALL ONLY MARGINALLY IN2017/18

摘要

London robusta futures fell to a 17-month low of $1,699 last week, which marks a sharp reversal from a 5-1/2-year high of $2,279 hit on the first of February. Beside the drop in Vietnamese output in 2016/17, the lofty levels early in 2017 had been supported by speculation at the time that Brazil may import coffee for the first time in decades, which however did not materialise in the following months. Now, the robusta market seems headed for a boost in production after going through a phase of lean supplies in the past season. Output is not only expected to recover in top producer Vietnam, but also in Brazil, Indonesia, India and Uganda - namely in all of the world's five largest producers of the variety which together account for nearly 90% of world robusta output. Uganda already experienced a sharp rise in production in 2016/17, which propelled it into fourth place among the world's largest robusta producers (passing India). For Brazil a strong recovery in production is expected in the next harvest that starts in the second quarter of 2018.