Epidemiological Forecasting of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever in Bulgaria using the ARIMA Modelling Methods

摘要

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is recognized as the most widespread tick-borne viral disease affecting humans. Bulgaria is the only European country where CCHF is endemic. However, the disease activity is also documented in the neighbouring countries. The period between the introduction of mandatory notification and registration in Bulgaria in 1953 till now covers 65 years and reflects the evolution of our knowledge of CCHF. For the study period (1953-2017) the average CCHF incidence in Bulgaria amounted to 0.29%omicron omicron omicron, decreasing from 0.49%omicron omicron omicron in 1953 to 0.03%omicron omicron omicron in 2017. The present study has shown stable CCHF incidence rates in the next 5 years using the ARIMA model for disease forecasting. Incidence forecasting is low and comparable to that of 2018. However, a new focus with territorial expansion ability has established in south-western Bulgaria, bordering North Greece. Further studies about the spread of virus in animals and ticks and early detection of human cases could provide the necessary data for risk assessment, preparedness and appropriate control measures.