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A systematic representation of crop rotations

机译:作物轮作的系统表示

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Crop rotations are allocations by growers of crop types to specific fields through time. This paper aims at presenting (i) a systematic and rigorous mathematical representation of crops rotations; and (ii) a concise mathematical framework to model crop rotations, which is useable on landscape scale modelling of agronomical practices. Rotations can be defined as temporal arrangements of crops and can be classified systematically according to their internal variability and cyclical pattern. Crop sequences in a rotation can be quantified as a transition matrix, with the Markovian property that the allocation in a given year depends on the crop allocated in the previous year. Such transition matrices can represent stochastic processes and thus facilitate modelling uncertainty in rotations, and forecasting of the long-term proportions of each crop in a rotation, such as changes in climate or economics. The matrices also permit modelling transitions between rotations due to external variables. Computer software was developed that incorporates these techniques and was used to simulate landscape scale agronomic processes over decadal periods.
机译:轮作是作物类型种植者随着时间的推移分配到特定田地的方式。本文的目的是提出(i)作物轮作的系统且严格的数学表示; (ii)简洁的数学框架来模拟作物轮作,可用于农艺实践的景观尺度建模。轮作可以定义为作物的时间安排,可以根据其内部变异性和周期性模式进行系统分类。轮作中的农作物序列可以量化为过渡矩阵,具有马尔可夫特性,即给定年份中的分配取决于上一年中分配的农作物。这种过渡矩阵可以表示随机过程,因此有助于对轮作中的不确定性进行建模,并预测轮作中每种作物的长期比例,例如气候或经济变化。矩阵还允许对外部变量导致的旋转之间的过渡进行建模。开发了包含这些技术的计算机软件,并用于模拟十年来的景观尺度农艺过程。

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