PE,PP demand outlook collapses IHS Markit’s forecast,revised for COVID-19,puts market growth close to zero this year

摘要

The combined shock of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)quarantines and plunging crude oil prices will cut worldwide polyethylene(PE)demand growth by about 4 million metric tons(MMt)this year,essentially wiping out all the expansion that had been forecast,say analysts at IHS Markit.The polypropylene(PP)market will fare only marginally better.”We have reduced our growth projections[for PE]from what was nearly 4% to just about 0.1%,”says Nick Vafladis,vice president/plastics and chemicals at IHS Markit.The effects will differ significantly by region,he adds.All the demand growth originally forecast for Northeast Asia has been destroyed during the initial quarantine period,but about three quarters of the loss will be offset by restocking and displaced demand for post-consumer recycle(PCR),says Vafiadis.”We’ve seen demand begin to recover in a pretty significant way,”he says.”With incentives to restock at lower prices available to buyers,we see about a million tons of this lost demand recovered.We’ve also seen demand for recycled material essentially vanish,as prices for prime material have now fallen below $750/metric ton.And this has encouraged prime demand to grow back.”