Must developing countries commit numerical targets? : Time flexibility and equity in climate chaneg mitigation

摘要

Equity and efficiency dimensions of global time flexibility is analyzed with an integrated model. Global time flexibility is justifiable to some extent as found in previous studies by Wigley et al. Nevertheless, it does not necessarily serve as a rationale to delay emission reduction efforts of developed countries as they suggested. The time flexibility can be saved for developing countries, and it must be so in equity consideration; early reduction by developed countries eases developing countries burden in both time and emission quota dimensions This equity-oriented argument is robust against time and spatial efficiency consideration, since the apparent benefits that might accrue to developed countries from delaying reductions will by no means be transferred to far distant future developing countries for mitigation and adaptation. The analysis thus support entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol without participation of key low income countries such as China and India with legally binding numerical targets in the First Commitment Period.