The Predictability of Seismicity and Large Earthquakes: Kamchatka 1962 to 2014

摘要

This paper reports the estimation of the predictability of seismicity and large earthquakes in Kamchatka as inferred from data in the Kamchatka regional catalog for 1962-2014. The mathematical model uses a second-order nonlinear differential equation, while the optimization algorithm and the estimates of predictability are the author's own. The estimates show a high predictability of seismicity; the extrema of prediction nonlinearity typical of large earthquakes usually occur simultaneously with similar extrema of seismicity as a whole. Overall, 220 large (K 13.3) Kamchatka earthquakes were analyzed to find that foreshock predictability was available for 200 earthquakes (similar to 30000 determinations) and aftershock predictability for 215 earthquakes (similar to 300000 determinations). The predictability related to large earthquakes began to be seen and was rapidly increasing at intermediate (7.5-30 km) radii of hypocenter samples. The prediction distances over time were some tens and hundreds of days for foreshock predictability and some hundreds and thousands of days for aftershock predictability. These results demonstrate very good promise for the approximation extrapolation approach to the prediction of both large earthquakes themselves and of subsequent aftershock decay of seismic activity.