Climatic variables and malaria incidence in Dehradun, Uttaranchal, India.

摘要

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Mosquito-borne diseases particularly malaria and Japanese encephalitis (JE) are becoming most dreaded health problems in Dehradun district. Keeping in view that the climatic factors particularly temperature and rainfall may alter the distribution of vector species--increasing or decreasing the ranges, depending on weather conditions that are favourable or unfavourable for mosquito breeding, it is aimed to find out the effect of climatic factors on malaria incidence with particular emphasis to capture the essential events as a result of climatic variability. METHODS: Mosquito sampling and identification was done using WHO entomological methods and follow-up of recognised keys and catalogues. Data on malaria incidence and meteorological information were gathered in a collaborative study with the District Malaria Office, and the Forest Research Institute, Dehradun respectively. Pearson's correlation analysis was applied for establishing relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission. RESULTS: Higher positive correlation of association was found between monthly parasite incidence and climatic variables (temperature, rainfall and humidity). However, highest significant correlation was found between rainfall and malaria incidence (r = 0.718, p < 0.0001) when the data were staggered to allow a lag of one-month. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: Climatic variables that predict the presence or absence of malaria are likely to be the best suited for forecasting the distribution of this disease at the edges of its range.