Rainfall Distribution and Trend Analysis for Upper Godavari Basin, India, from 100 Years Record (1911-2010)

摘要

Precipitation plays an omni-important role in a developing country like India where the lion's share of the economy is dependent on agriculture which in turn is dependent on the rains. However, with unplanned urbanization and climate change, the precipitation pattern has changed a lot. Present work studies the distribution, pattern and trend analysis (seasonal and annual) of precipitation for 100 years of upper Godavari basin which is an important agricultural belt of India. Various statistical methods like Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope estimator and linear regression were employed to understand the nature and rate of spatial-temporal change. Except monsoon season, there has been a decrease in the amount of rainfall during the other seasons. The purpose of the trend analysis is to help the policy makers for efficient and sustainable water resource management taking in view the grass root realities. The effect of environmental change on the spatial and temporal dissemination of precipitation is clearly visible in the analysis. In general, the study area shows a decline in annual precipitation.