Research on risk assessment of debris flow in a mining area in western China based on the game theory empowering normal cloud theory

摘要

Risk assessment of debris flow is an uncertain problem involving randomness and fuzziness. The cloud model is used to distinguish for assessing the risk of debris flow scientifically and rationally. Firstly, the system standard of debris flow risk assessment is constructed; secondly, impact factor of each assessment system which belonging to cloud droplet of each risk level produced by normal cloud generator, the subjective weights and objective weights of the debris flow influence factors are coupled by using game theory', and consider the fuzziness of debris flow basic data, using the Monte Carlo modelling thought, and bv generating large cloud droplets and statistics of the average value in a mini zone near the basic data for evaluating debris flow as the basic data belonging to some hierarchical average degree of certainty; finally, the proposed model is used for case research, and compared to several existing mature methods to prove the proposed model is feasible and reasonable.