Impact of the improvements in Fusarium head blight and agronomic management on economics of winter wheat

摘要

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a devastating disease to cereal crops worldwide that decreases grain yield, grain quality, and causes mycotoxin contamination. FHB resulted in an estimated $2 billion USD loss in the US between 1993 and 2001, and 520 million Canadian dollars (CAD) in Canada in the 1990s. In the wheat producing areas in Canada and the United States, it is perceived that significant progress has been made to manage FHB, but the economic impact of various innovations has not been quantified. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to assess the economic impact of various practices deployed in the province of Ontario, Canada, on managing deoxynivalenol and improving agronomic performance in winter wheat since an epidemic in 1996. The impacts of four hypothetical FHB management scenarios on total deoxynivalenol (DON) concentration and grain yield were estimated in field experiments that compared old (mid-1990s) and modern era (mid-2010s) production practices. Management scenarios included old and new cultivars varying in susceptibility to FHB, fungicide application and nitrogen rates. These impacts were applied to farm survey data collected in 1996 to estimate farm revenue and profit. A similar economic estimate was conducted for the recent FHB epidemic in 2013. If a modern MR cultivar, a modern fungicide, and the combination were deployed in the epidemic of 1996, farm revenue would have increased by 26-32, 23-36 and 48-60%, and profit increased by 88-157, 42-59 and 165-207 CAD per ha, respectively, depending on the nitrogen rate. In the province of Ontario, up to 68 million CAD of revenue losses could have been avoided in 1996 with the use of modern agronomic and FHB management practices. Our study has quantified some of the major economic advances in managing FHB and DON since 1996, but further research is needed to develop better cultivars and management strategies.