Modeling and Predicting the Short‐Term Evolution of the Geomagnetic Field

机译：造型与预测地磁场的短期演变

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Abstract >We propose a reduced dynamical system describing the coupled evolution of fluid flow and magnetic field at the top of the Earth's core between the years 1900 and 2014. The flow evolution is modeled with a first‐order autoregressive process, while the magnetic field obeys the classical frozen flux equation. An ensemble Kalman filter algorithm serves to constrain the dynamics with the geomagnetic field and its secular variation given by the COV‐OBS.x1 model. Using a large ensemble with 40,000 members provides meaningful statistics including reliable error estimates. The model highlights two distinct flow scales. Slowly varying large‐scale elements include the already documented eccentric gyre. Localized short‐lived structures include distinctly ageostophic features like the high‐latitude polar jet on the Northern Hemisphere. Comparisons with independent observations of the length‐of‐day variations not only validate the flow estimates but also suggest an acceleration of the geostrophic flows over the last century. Hindcasting tests show that our model outperforms simpler predictions bases (linear extrapolation and stationary flow). The predictability limit, of about 2,000?years for the magnetic dipole component, is mostly determined by the random fast varying dynamics of the flow and much less by the geomagnetic data quality or lack of small‐scale information. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”XML：ID =“JGRB52805-Abs-Abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >我们提出了一种描述的动态系统在1900年和2014年之间的地球核心顶部的流体流动和磁场的耦合演化。流动演变用一阶自回归过程建模，而磁场遵守经典冷冻通量方程。 Ensemble Kalman滤波器算法用于将动态与地磁场和CoV-Obs.x1模型给出的其世俗变体约束。使用具有40,000名成员的大型集合提供有意义的统计数据，包括可靠的错误估计。该模型突出了两个不同的流量尺度。缓慢变化的大规模元素包括已经记录过的偏心型。本地化的短期结构包括北半球的高纬度极射流等明显的龄化特征。与日期长度变化的独立观察的比较不仅验证了流量估计，而且建议在上世纪的热性流动加速。 Hindcasting测试表明，我们的模型优于更简单的预测基础（线性外推和静止流动）。磁性偶极组分的可预测性极限为约2,000岁，大多数由流量的随机快速变化动态决定，并且通过地磁数据质量或缺乏小规模信息来决定。</ p> </ abstract > </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34677/'>《Journal of geophysical research. Solid earth: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共22页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=B?renzung Julien&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">B?renzung Julien;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Holschneider Matthias&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Holschneider Matthias;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wicht Johannes&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wicht Johannes;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sanchez Sabrina&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Sanchez Sabrina;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lesur Vincent&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lesur Vincent;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Institute for MathematicsUniversity of PotsdamPotsdam Germany;</p> <p>Institute for MathematicsUniversity of PotsdamPotsdam Germany;</p> <p>Max Planck Institute for Solar System ResearchG?ttingen Germany;</p> <p>Max Planck Institute for Solar System ResearchG?ttingen Germany;</p> <p>Institut de Physique du Globe de ParisParis France;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=core flow&option=203" rel="nofollow">core flow;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=assimilation&option=203" rel="nofollow">assimilation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=prediction&option=203" rel="nofollow">prediction;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=length of day&option=203" rel="nofollow">length of day;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：核心流动;同化;预测;长度的一天; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025592699.html">Modeling and Predicting the Short‐Term Evolution of the Geomagnetic Field</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=B?renzung Julien&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">B?renzung Julien,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Holschneider Matthias&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Holschneider Matthias,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wicht Johannes&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Wicht Johannes,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34677/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of geophysical research. 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