Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquake slip distribution and location

Sepúlveda Ignacio; Liu Philip L.‐F.; Grigoriu Mircea; Pritchard Matthew

摘要

Abstract >This paper proposes a stochastic approach to model the earthquake uncertainties in terms of the rupture location and the slip distribution for a future event, with an expected earthquake magnitude. Once the statistical properties of earthquake uncertainties are described, they are then propagated into the tsunami response and the inundation at assessed coastal areas. The slip distribution is modeled as a random field within a nonrectangular rupture area. The Karhunen‐Lòeve (K‐L) expansion method is used to generate samples of the random slip, and a translation model is employed to obtain target probability properties. A strategy is developed to specify the accuracy of the random samples in terms of numbers of subfaults of the rupture area and the truncation of the K‐L expansion. The propagation of uncertainty into the tsunami response is performed by means of a Stochastic Reduced Order Model. To illustrate the methodology, we investigated a study case in north Chile. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability properties. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than those obtained with classic Monte Carlo simulations. To validate the methodology, we compared the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for the 2014 Chilean earthquake. Results show that leading wave measurements fall within the tsunami sample space. At later times, however, there are mismatches between measured data and the simulated results, suggesting that other sources of uncertainties are as relevant as the uncertainty of earthquakes. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：ID =“JGRB52276-ABS-ABS-ABS-0001”> <Title Type =“Main”> Abstract </ Title> <P>本文提出了一种随机方法来模拟地震不确定因素破裂位置和未来事件的防滑分配，预期地震幅度。一旦描述了地震不确定性的统计特性，然后将它们传播到海啸响应和评估沿海地区的泛滥。滑动分布在非连接破裂区域内被建模为随机场。 Karhunen-LòEVE（K-L）膨胀方法用于产生随机滑动的样品，并且使用翻译模型来获得目标概率特性。开发了一种策略，以指定随机样本的准确性，以便在破裂面积的子断线和截断K-L扩展方面。通过随机减少的阶模型进行不确定性对海啸响应的传播。为了说明方法，我们在北智利调查了一项研究案例。我们首先表明随机方法相对于目标概率特性产生一致的地震样本。我们还表明，从SROM获得的结果比使用经典蒙特卡罗模拟获得的结果更准确。为了验证方法，我们比较了2014年智利地震的模拟海啸和海啸记录。结果表明，前导波测量落在海啸上的样本空间内。然而，随后的时间，测量数据与模拟结果之间存在不匹配，表明其他不确定性的来源与地震的不确定性一样重要。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34677/'>《Journal of geophysical research. Solid earth: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第9期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共20页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sepúlveda Ignacio&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Sepúlveda Ignacio;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Liu Philip L.‐F.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Liu Philip L.‐F.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Grigoriu Mircea&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Grigoriu Mircea;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Pritchard Matthew&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Pritchard Matthew;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>School of Civil and Environmental EngineeringCornell UniversityIthaca New York USA;</p> <p>School of Civil and Environmental EngineeringCornell UniversityIthaca New York USA;</p> <p>School of Civil and Environmental EngineeringCornell UniversityIthaca New York USA;</p> <p>Department of Earth and Atmospheric SciencesCornell UniversityIthaca New York USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tsunami assessment uncertainty&option=203" rel="nofollow">tsunami assessment uncertainty;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=uncertain earthquakes&option=203" rel="nofollow">uncertain earthquakes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Karhunen‐Lòeve&option=203" rel="nofollow">Karhunen‐Lòeve;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=translation model&option=203" rel="nofollow">translation model;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Stochastic Reduced Order Model&option=203" rel="nofollow">Stochastic Reduced Order Model;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=exceedance curves&option=203" rel="nofollow">exceedance curves;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：海啸评估不确定性;不确定的地震;Karhunen-Lòeve;翻译模型;随机减少秩序模型;超标曲线; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704020651442.html">Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquake slip distribution and location</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sepulveda Ignacio&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Sepulveda Ignacio,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Liu Philip L. -F.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Liu Philip L. -F.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Grigoriu Mircea&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Grigoriu Mircea,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34656/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of Geophysical Research. 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