Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in South China Sea With Consideration of Uncertain Earthquake Characteristics

Sepúlveda Ignacio; Liu Philip L.‐F.; Grigoriu Mircea

摘要

Abstract > In this paper, we have conducted a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Hong Kong (China) and Kao Hsiung (Taiwan), considering earthquakes generated in the Manila subduction zone. The new PTHA methodology with the consideration of uncertainties of slip distribution and location of future earthquakes extends the stochastic approach of Sepúlveda et al. (2017). Using sensitivity analyses, we further investigate the uncertainties of probability properties defining the slip distribution, the location, and the occurrence of earthquakes. We demonstrate that Kao Hsiung and Hong Kong would be significantly impacted by tsunamis generated by <fi>M</fi> <sub> <fi>W</fi> </sub> ??8.5 earthquakes in the Manila subduction zone. For instance, a specific <fi>M</fi> <sub> <fi>W</fi> </sub> 9.0 earthquake scenario is capable of producing tsunami amplitudes exceeding 4.0 and 3.5?m in Kao Hsiung and Hong Kong, respectively, with a probability of 50%. Despite the significant tsunami impact, great earthquakes have long mean return periods. As a result, the PTHA shows that Kao Hsiung and Hong Kong are exposed to a relatively small tsunami hazard. For instance, maximum tsunami amplitudes in the assessed locations of Kao Hsiung and Hong Kong exceed 0.32 and 0.18?m, respectively, with a mean return period of 100?years. The inundation hazard in populated areas is small as well, with mean return periods exceeding 1,000?years. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the PTHA can be affected by the uncertainties of the probability properties defining the slip distribution, the location, and the occurrence of earthquakes. However, PTHA results are most sensitive to the choice of the earthquake occurrence model. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“main”XML：lang =“en”XML：ID =“JGRB53205-Abs-Abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >在本文中，我们进行了一个考虑在马尼拉郊区产生的地震，香港（中国）和Kao Hsiung（台湾）及Kao Hsiung（台湾）的概率性海啸危害评估（PTHA）。鉴于考虑防滑分布的不确定性和未来地震位置的新的PTHA方法延长了Sepúlveda等人的随机方法。（2017）。使用灵敏度分析，我们进一步研究了定义滑动分布，位置和地震发生的概率特性的不确定性。我们展示了Kao Hsiung和香港的海啸将受到<fi> m </ fi> <sub> <fi> w </ fi> </ sub>生成的海啸的影响。例如，特定的<fi> m </ fi> <sub> <fi> w </ fi> </ sub> 9.0地震场景能够生产超过4.0和3.5的海啸幅度超过4.0和3.5？m，分别概率为50％。尽管海啸的影响力很大，但大地震有长期的速度回报。因此，PTHA表明，Kao Hsiung和香港接触到相对较小的海啸危险。例如，Kao Hsiung和香港评估地点的最大海啸幅度分别超过0.32和0.18？m，平均返回期为100？年。人口稠密地区的淹没危险也很小，平均返回期超过1000岁。敏感性分析表明，PTHA可能受到限定滑动分布，位置和地震发生的概率特性的不确定性的影响。然而，PTHA结果对地震发生模型的选择最敏感。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34677/'>《Journal of geophysical research. Solid earth: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2019年第1期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共31页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sepúlveda Ignacio&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Sepúlveda Ignacio;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Liu Philip L.‐F.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Liu Philip L.‐F.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Grigoriu Mircea&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Grigoriu Mircea;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Now at Cecil H. and Ida M. Green Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California San DiegoLa Jolla CA USA;</p> <p>Civil and Environmental EngineeringCornell UniversityIthaca NY USA;</p> <p>Civil and Environmental EngineeringCornell UniversityIthaca NY USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tsunami&option=203" rel="nofollow">tsunami;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment&option=203" rel="nofollow">probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=uncertainties of earthquake slip distribution and location&option=203" rel="nofollow">uncertainties of earthquake slip distribution and location;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=uncertainties of probability properties of the earthquake slip distribution&option=203" rel="nofollow">uncertainties of probability properties of the earthquake slip distribution;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=location&option=203" rel="nofollow">location;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=and occurrence&option=203" rel="nofollow">and occurrence;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=earthquake samples&option=203" rel="nofollow">earthquake samples;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=uncertainty propagation&option=203" rel="nofollow">uncertainty propagation;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：海啸;概率性海啸危害评估;地震滑动分布和位置的不确定性;地震滑动分布的概率特性的不确定性;地点;地震样本;不确定的传播;不确定的传播; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025590968.html">Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment in South China Sea With Consideration of Uncertain Earthquake Characteristics</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sepúlveda Ignacio&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Sepúlveda Ignacio,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Liu Philip L.‐F.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Liu Philip L.‐F.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Grigoriu Mircea&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Grigoriu Mircea </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34677/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of geophysical research. 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