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A Statistical Model for Earthquake Recurrence Based on the Assimilation of Paleoseismicity, Historic Seismicity, and Instrumental Seismicity

机译：基于古半发震，历史地震性和仪器地震性的同化的地震复发统计模型

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Abstract > Paleoearthquakes and historic earthquakes are the most important source of information for the estimation of long‐term earthquake recurrence intervals in fault zones, because corresponding sequences cover more than one seismic cycle. However, these events are often rare, dating uncertainties are enormous, and missing or misinterpreted events lead to additional problems. In the present study, I assume that the time to the next major earthquake depends on the rate of small and intermediate events between the large ones in terms of a “clock change” model. Mathematically, this leads to a Brownian passage time distribution for recurrence intervals. I take advantage of an earlier finding that under certain assumptions the aperiodicity of this distribution can be related to the Gutenberg‐Richter b value, which can be estimated easily from instrumental seismicity in the region under consideration. In this way, both parameters of the Brownian passage time distribution can be attributed with accessible seismological quantities. This allows to reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of the mean recurrence interval, especially for short paleoearthquake sequences and high dating errors. Using a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation results in a statistical model for earthquake recurrence intervals that assimilates in a simple way paleoearthquake sequences and instrumental data. I present illustrative case studies from Southern California and compare the method with the commonly used approach of exponentially distributed recurrence times based on a stationary Poisson process. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”XML：ID =“JGRB52790-ABS-ABS-ABS-0001”> <标题类型=“MAIN”> Abstract </ Title> <P> Paleoearthquaks和历史地震是最重要的估计断层区域中长期地震复发间隔的信息来源，因为相应的序列涵盖了多于一个地震循环。然而，这些事件通常很少见，约会不确定性是巨大的，缺失或误解事件导致额外的问题。在本研究中，我假设下一个主要地震的时间取决于在“时钟改变”模型方面的大型中的小和中间事件的速率。在数学上，这导致棕色通道时间分布为复发间隔。我利用较早的发现，在某些假设下，该分布的非周期性可以与古龄 - 富勒斯·β1>增值有关，这可以在所考虑的区域的仪器地震性中容易地估计。以这种方式，布朗通道时间分布的两个参数都可以归因于可访问的地震量。这允许减少估计平均复发间隔的不确定性，特别是对于短古地表序列和高约会误差。使用贝叶斯框架进行参数估计，导致地震复发间隔的统计模型以简单的方式在古地点序列和仪器数据中同化。我提出了来自南加州的说明性案例研究，并将该方法与基于固定泊松过程的常用分布式复发时间的常用方法进行比较。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34677/'>《Journal of geophysical research. Solid earth: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共16页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Z?ller Gert&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Z?ller Gert;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Institute of MathematicsUniversity of PotsdamPotsdam Germany;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=statistical seismology&option=203" rel="nofollow">statistical seismology;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=paleoearthquakes&option=203" rel="nofollow">paleoearthquakes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=stochastic models&option=203" rel="nofollow">stochastic models;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=seismic hazard&option=203" rel="nofollow">seismic hazard;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：统计地震学;古老地震;随机模型;地震危害; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025592024.html">A Statistical Model for Earthquake Recurrence Based on the Assimilation of Paleoseismicity, Historic Seismicity, and Instrumental Seismicity</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Z?ller Gert&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Z?ller Gert </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34677/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of geophysical research. 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EARTHQUAKE SEISMIC INTENSITY PREDICTING DEVICE AND EARTHQUAKE SEISMIC INTENSITY PREDICTING METHOD USING THIS</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  WO0248741A1 </span> <span> . 2002-06-20</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：地震发生时的地震烈度监测系统，安全信息确认系统和方法，以及以此为基础的地震地震烈度预测装置和地震烈度预测方法 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130446532678.html">Earthquake seismic intensity monitor system, safety information confirming system and method at disaster occurrence, and earthquake seismic intensity predictingdevice and earthquake seismic intensity predicting method using this</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  AU2262502A </span> <span> . 2002-06-24</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：地震地震烈度监测系统，灾害发生时的安全信息确认系统和方法，以及使用该系统的地震地震烈度预测装置和地震地震烈度预测方法 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130416059191.html">INSTRUMENTAL SEISMIC INTENSITY ESTIMATION DEVICE, AND INSTRUMENTAL SEISMIC INTENSITY ESTIMATION SYSTEM USING THE SAME</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  JP2014228373A </span> <span> . 2014-12-08</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：仪器地震烈度估计装置和使用该仪器的仪器地震烈度估计系统 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" class="downloadBth" style="bottom: 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