Sensitivities of Near‐field Tsunami Forecasts to Megathrust Deformation Predictions

机译：近场海啸预测对Megathrust变形预测的敏感性

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Abstract >This study reveals how modeling configurations of forward and inverse analyses of coseismic deformation data influence the estimations of seismic and tsunami sources. We illuminate how the predictions of near‐field tsunami change when (1) a heterogeneous (HET) distribution of crustal material is introduced to the elastic dislocation model, and (2) the near‐trench rupture is either encouraged or suppressed to invert spontaneous coseismic displacements. Hypothetical scenarios of megathrust earthquakes are studied with synthetic Global Positioning System displacements in Cascadia. Finite‐element models are designed to mimic the subsurface heterogeneity across the curved subduction margin. The HET lithospheric domain modifies the seafloor displacement field and alters tsunami predictions from those of a homogeneous (HOM) crust. Uncertainties persist as the inverse analyses of geodetic data produce nonrealistic slip artifacts over the HOM domain, which propagates into the prediction errors of subsequent tsunami arrival and amplitudes. A stochastic analysis further shows that the uncertainties of seismic tomography models do not degrade the solution accuracy of HET over HOM. Whether the source ruptures near the trench also controls the details of the seafloor disturbance. Deeper subsurface slips induce more seafloor uplift near the coast and cause an earlier arrival of tsunami waves than surface‐slipping events. We suggest using the solutions of zero‐updip‐slip and zero‐updip‐slip‐gradient rupture boundary conditions as end‐members to constrain the tsunami behavior for forecasting purposes. The findings are important for the near‐field tsunami warning that primarily relies on the near‐real‐time geodetic or seismic data for source calibration before megawaves hit the nearest shore upon tsunamigenic events. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >本研究显示了电影变形数据的前向和逆分析的建模配置如何影响估计地震和海啸来源。我们阐明了（1）将近场Tsunami改变的预测改变（1）引入弹性脱位模型的异质（HET）分布，并促进或抑制近沟槽破裂以反转自发性电影流离失所。在Cascadia的合成全球定位系统位移研究了巨大地震的假设场景。有限元模型旨在模拟弯曲俯冲边缘的地下异质性。 HET型材域改变海底位移场，并从均匀（HOM）地壳中改变海啸预测。由于大地测量的逆分析在HOM域中产生非识别性滑动伪像，因此不确定性持续存在于HOM域上的非极性滑动伪影，其传播到随后的海啸到达和幅度的预测误差中。随机分析进一步表明，地震断层扫描模型的不确定性不会降低HET OVER HOM的溶液精度。沟槽附近的源裂断还控制了海底干扰的细节。更深层次的地下滑块诱导海岸附近的更多海底隆起，并导致海啸波浪的到来而不是表面滑动事件。我们建议使用零升压滑动和零更新滑移梯度破裂边界条件的解决方案作为终端成员，以限制预测目的的海啸行为。该研究结果对于近场海啸预警来说是主要依赖于近实时的大地测量或地震数据进行源校准之前的近距离校准，而兆瓦队在QuaMigenic事件上击中最近的岸边。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34677/'>《Journal of geophysical research. Solid earth: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第2期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共25页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Tung S.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Tung S.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Masterlark T.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Masterlark T.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Geology and Geological EngineeringSouth Dakota School of Mines and TechnologyRapid City SD USA;</p> <p>Department of Geology and Geological EngineeringSouth Dakota School of Mines and TechnologyRapid City SD USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=tsunami&option=203" rel="nofollow">tsunami;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=near‐field&option=203" rel="nofollow">near‐field;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=earthquake&option=203" rel="nofollow">earthquake;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=GPS&option=203" rel="nofollow">GPS;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=heterogeneous&option=203" rel="nofollow">heterogeneous;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=FEM&option=203" rel="nofollow">FEM;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：海啸;近场;地震;GPS;异质;FEM; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025591520.html">Sensitivities of Near‐field Tsunami Forecasts to Megathrust Deformation Predictions</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Tung S.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Tung S.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Masterlark T.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Masterlark T. </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34677/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of geophysical research. 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Masterlark </a> <span>2018</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：近场海啸预测对Megathrust变形预测的敏感性</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>8. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/ntis-science-report_ad_thesis/020711909629.html">Sensitivity of Fatigue Life Predictions to Approximations in the Representation of Metal Cyclic Deformation Response in a Computer-Based Fatigue Analysis Model.</a> <b>[R] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Conle, A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Conle, A.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext= Topper, T. H.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> Topper, T. 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Rao Kashif</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=RaoKashif&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,RaoKashif</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Peng ZONG&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,Peng ZONG</a> <span> <a href="/conference-cn-4779/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 第九届卫星通信学术年会 </a> <span> <span> . 2013</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>7. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-degree-domestic_mphd_thesis/020313304246.html">深基坑边坡影响因素敏感性分析及变形预测</a> <b>[A] </b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=李英华&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 李英华</a> <span> . 2017</span> </span> </div> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/061203401665.html">海啸预测方法以及装置、海啸预警方法以及装置</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN106156874B </span> <span> . 2019.07.23</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120108639838.html">海啸预测方法以及装置、海啸预警方法以及装置</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN106156874A </span> <span> . 2016-11-23</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130431542125.html">Ceramic e.g. porcelain, object deformation forecasting method for e.g. sanitary field, involves altering geometric model of object before fritting so that object has pre-deformation to make object shape compatible with geometrical criteria</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  FR2907573A1 </span> <span> . 2008-04-25</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：陶瓷的瓷，物体变形预测方法，例如卫生领域，涉及在烧结之前更改对象的几何模型，以使对象具有预变形以使对象形状与几何准则兼容 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130404300892.html">Prediction of in-field dry-down of a mature small grain, coarse grain, or oilseed crop using field-level analysis and forecasting of weather conditions and crop characteristics including sampled moisture content</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  US10255390B2 </span> <span> . 2019-04-09</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：使用田间分析并预测天气条件和作物特征（包括采样的水分含量），预测成熟的小粒，粗粮或油料作物的田间干燥 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130409929818.html">PREDICTION OF IN-FIELD DRY-DOWN OF A MATURE SMALL GRAIN, COARSE GRAIN, OR OILSEED CROP USING FIELD-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF WEATHER CONDITIONS AND CROP CHARACTERISTICS INCLUDING SAMPLED MOISTURE CONTENT</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  US2017061299A1 </span> <span> . 2017-03-02</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：使用现场分析和预测天气条件和包括水分含量在内的作物特征，预测成熟的小谷物，粗粮或油作物的田间干旱 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" class="downloadBth" style="bottom: 19px;z-index: 999;" onclick="ywcd('0704025591520','4',7,2,1,'',this,24)" class="delivery" prompt="010401" title="通过人工服务将文献原文发送至邮箱" >获取原文</div> <div class="journalsub-pop-up" style="display: none"> <div class="journal-sub"> <h2>期刊订阅</h2> <img src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/img/loginclose.png" alt="" 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