Modeling the potential impact of catastrophic weather on crop insurance industry portfolio losses.

摘要

This paper discusses ways in which catastrophe risk modelling can be used in agriculture as a planning tool to anticipate the likelihood and severity of potential future weather-based catastrophic events, ultimately permitting crop insurance companies and policy makers to better prepare for the financial impact of natural disasters. Using the US crop insurance industry exposure information for 2007, the paper models the probability of weather-related catastrophic losses for different return periods and draws conclusions for the overall profitability of the programme.