Access of Tunisian Fruits and Vegetables to the EU Market: Potential Impacts of the Revision of the Entry Price System

摘要

Agricultural trade flows worldwide continue to be subject to country restrictions of a tariff and non-tariff nature. This is more so in the case of fruits and vegetables in view of their multiplicity. This hinders the exports of these products, whichis an important objective sought by the economy of Tunisia. This article simulates the potential consequences of a possible opening up of the European market borders on fruits and vegetables coming from Tunisia and the rest of the world (ROW), followingalternative tariff reduction schemes of the entry price mechanism practiced by the EU, particularly in its ad-valorem duty. The analysis uses a partial equilibrium model that takes into consideration economic aspects related to the exports of these products, regardless of their interactions with other agricultural commodities. The model is composed of a series of behavioral equations describing excess demand and supply of fruits and vegetables of all trading partners and attempts to simulate "international" market equilibrium for these commodities. Tomatoes, oranges and peaches were selected for the analysis and three trading blocs were taken into consideration: The European Union, Tunisia and the ROW. Two policy scenarios were examined (a) reduction by one third of the ad-valorem tariff and (b) its total elimination. The results suggest that the impacts would be concentrated in specific periods, varying with products and regions. In addition to possible trade volumes, Tunisia and other countries mayalso gain in value from exports. A significant increase in the prices of peaches and tomatoes for Tunisia would result from the liberalization process of the EU market. Volumes and prices of EU domestic supplies would however exhibit moderate reductions.