A Multimodel Intercomparison of an Intense Typhoon in Future, Warmer Climates by Four 5-km-Mesh Models

摘要

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) sometimes cause huge disasters, so it is imperative to explore the impacts of climate change on such TCs. Therefore, the authors conducted numerical simulations of the most destructive historical TC in Japanese history, Typhoon Vera (1959), in the current climate and a global warming climate. The authors used four nonhydrostatic models with a horizontal resolution of 5 km: the cloud-resolving storm simulator, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) operational nonhydrostatic mesoscale model, and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Initial and boundary conditions for the control simulation were provided by the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis dataset. Changes between the periods of 1979-2003 and 2075-99 were estimated from climate runs of a 20-km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model, and these changes were added to the initial and boundary conditions of the control simulation to produce the future climate conditions.