MODELING THE EFFECT OF A NOVEL AUTO-DISSEMINATION TRAP ON THE SPREAD OF DENGUE IN HIGH-RISE CONDOMINIA, MALAYSIA

摘要

In this paper, we use the classical Ross-Macdonald model to analyze the effect of the Mosquito Home System (MHS), which is an example of an auto-dissemination trap, in controlling the spread of dengue in Malaysia in a high-rise condominium environment. By using the national dengue data from Malaysia, we are able to estimate lambda which represents the initial growth rate of the dengue epidemic and thus allows us to estimate the number of mosquitoes in Malaysia. The basic reproduction number R-0 is also obtained. We have constructed a mathematical expression which allows us to estimate the potential number of breeding sites for Aedes mosquitoes. Later on, by using the data available from the 11 months trials carried out in three blocks of flats in Selangor, we improved on our dengue model by including the effect of the MHS and thus modeling the impact it has on the spread of dengue within the flats. Numerical simulations and tables are also produced to illustrate our results.