EFFECT OF TIME DELAY IN A CANNIBALISTIC STAGE-STRUCTURED PREDATOR–PREY MODEL WITH HARVESTING OF AN ADULT PREDATOR: THE CASE OF LIONFISH

摘要

The progressive and increasing invasion of an opportunistic predator, the lionfish (Pterois volitans) has become a major threat for the delicate coral-reef ecosystem. The herbivore fish populations, in particular of Parrotfish, are taking the consequences of the lionfish invasion and then their control function on macro-algae growth is threatened. In this paper, we developed and analyzed a stage-structured mathematical model including P. volitans (lionfish), a cannibalistic predator, and a Parrotfish, its potential prey. As control upon the over predation, a rational harvest term has been considered. Further, to make the system more realistic, a delay in the growth rate of juvenile P. volitans population has been incorporated. We performed a global sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters of the system having significant correlations with the fishes. We observed that the system generates transcritical bifurcation, which takes the P. volitans-free equilibrium to the coexistence equilibrium on increasing the values of predation rate of adult P. volitans on Parrotfish. Further increase in the values of the predation rate of adult P. volitans on Parrotfish drives the system into Hopf bifurcation, which induces oscillation around the coexistence equilibrium. Moreover, the conversion efficiency due to cannibalism also has the property to alter the stability behavior of the system through Hopf bifurcation. The effect of time delay on the dynamics of the system is extensively studied and it is observed that the system develops chaotic dynamics through period-doubling oscillations for large values of time delay. However, if the system is already oscillatory, then the large values of time delay causes extinction of P. volitans from the system. To illustrate the occurrence of chaotic dynamics in the system, we drew the Poincaré map and also computed the Lyapunov exponents.